Subway Assignment Essay Example for Free

Subway Assignment Essay Fred and his friend Dr. Peter Buck got a loan of $1,000 to open the submarine sandwich shop which now we know as Subway. Subway opened in August 1965 in Bridgeport, Connecticut. Both men had decided that the goal for Subway was to operate 32 stores in 10 years. By 1974 they had 16 Subways up and running. Knowing they would not reach the goal set back in 1965 the two men decided to franchising and launching the Subway brand into the global brand it is today. Subway has amassed 37,885 restaurants in 99 countries. For something that started off as just a way to make money for a man to live his dream of becoming a doctor, it has turned into one of the biggest food chains in the world. These numbers mean that Subway has the most restaurants in the world of any other restaurant chain. Subway has three big values and philosophy. Family – Subway build their business relationships by treating each other, the customers and communities like family. These brings a very close feeling to the whole franchise. Teamwork – Subway challenge themselves to succeed through teamwork against goals shared by everyone at Subway and to all be accountable for their responsibilities. Opportunity – Subway create great chances for entrepreneurs, by allowing people with good business sense to open a franchise of their own. The Structure and Employees The structure for Subway starts at the main headquarters in Milford, Connecticut. From there it goes globally. It goes as far as USA to Ireland, onto Afghanistan and even further. Every different Subway shop opened has got the same structure to it. Subway has got a tall structure, meaning it has different levels of management and people have to answer to people who work above them. Many businesses that run like this aren’t like Subway though. Subway is extremely friendly, from the store owner all the way down to the sandwich artists and everyone working in the store does get an opinion on some new ideas. The Subway departments are as follows: Executive, Administrative, Franchise Brands, Development, Operations, Technology, Marketing, International, Finance, Legal, Store Owner, Store Manager, Assistant Store Manager, Team Leaders and then Sandwich Artists. Considering Subway has so many restaurants in so many countries, they have provided so many jobs which is brilliant. According to the main Subway website, the headquarters alone employ a thousand people. Across all of the franchises worldwide there is more than three hundred thousand jobs. Subway are always looking to open more franchises which will provide more jobs and the fact that they are such compact restaurants, means there is so much opportunity to open more franchises. The Functions of staff Executive – This team supports company wide operations at Subway’s headquarters. This role includes customer care and the business process eam. Administrative – The administrative team is responsible for employee management and grounds and shipping centre oversight. Franchise Brands – This team offers a diversified portfolio of new and promising ideas that will improve the Subway experience for franchises and customers. Development – This is the team th at works very close to the people who want to open their very own Subway restaurant. Part of the job is to help with real estate planning and recruiting new franchisees. Operations – This is the team that enforces and provides training and operational assistance to franchisees and field staff. Technology – This is the team who are responsible for implementing and maintaining all technology systems that are in the company and provide technology initiatives so franchisees can operate their business more efficiently. Marketing – This is the team who present the public face for Subway. These teams departments include research and development, which develop and test markets the food that Subway serve and the franchising advertising fund are responsible for the creation and placement of commercials and print ads. International – This is the team that deal with the franchises outside of the USA and Canada. Franchise Owner – This is the person or people that pay for the right to use the Subway name and they own that particular franchise. Store Manager – The store manager reports directly to the franchise owner. The store manager must maintain a high quality store operation. The store manager must also analyse financial performance, ensure that customers are happy and make sure that all sandwiches sold are a high quality. The store manager must also provide support for all of the other shop staff. Assistant Manager – The assistant manager pretty much assists the store manager in his or her job and will be able to stand in if need be. Team Leader – The team leader must report to both the store manager and the assistant manager. The team leader must also be responsible for serving customers, following health and safety procedures and keeping the store clean. They also must train in new sandwich artists. Sandwich Artists – The sandwich artists are the face of the shop. These are the people you will see the most when you walk into a Subway restaurant. It is their job to make the delicious sandwiches and to make sure that the customers are happy with everything. They also must make sure the shop is clean all the time and maintain good health safety standards.

Strategic Planning And Development Of Addidas Marketing Essay

Strategic Planning And Development Of Addidas Marketing Essay According to Data monitor Adidas is among the leading players in the global sporting goods industry. The group is the leading sporting goods group in Germany, France and Japan, the most important markets outside the US. Adidas, through Reebok, has also a strong position in the US. The acquisition of Reebok has helped Adidas gain a 20% share of the US athletic footwear market. However leading market position help Adidas gain competitive advantage in market and brand loyal customers and Adidass high brand equity enables it to attract more customers. The 2010 FIFA World Cup was a big success for Adidas. The company had a supreme presence at the event with twelve teams including the host nation in the finals, combined with its status as official sponsor, supplier and licensee. The event had a great effect on the Adidas brand overall due to its unprecedented scale of media coverage. As of June 21, 2010 (almost ten days after the competition began), the company achieved record breaking sales, predicting sales of soccer-related merchandise at least $2.2 billion, surpassing the $1.9 billion obtained in football sales in 2008. Adidas markets its products through an extensive marketing infrastructure. The group offers its products through its own retail stores and franchised stores. However extensive marketing infrastructure helps Adidas to reach a wide range of customers and eventually expand its size of the market. According to Data monitor the group has geographically-diversified operations. It operates in Europe, North America, Asia and Latin America. Moreover, the group has balanced revenue mix in terms of revenue generated from various geographical locations. However this means Adidas can acquire greater economies of scale with its geographically diversified operations. Adidas has sponsorship agreements for major sports events across the globe. The company has a sponsorship agreement with the Japan Football Association until March 2015 and with the Australian Olympic Committee until 2016. It also secured sponsorship rights to the 2014 FIFA World Cup. In addition, in 2009, Adidas extended its partnership with UEFA for the UEFA EURO 2012 and UEFA EURO 2016 football championships, as well as for the UEFA Champions League. The company has also signed an 11-year global merchandising partnership agreement (beginning with the 2006-2007 season) with the National Basketball Association (NBA). This deal makes Adidas the official uniform and apparel provider for the NBA, the Womens National Basketball Association and the NBA Development League. Additionally, Adidas is also the Official Sportswear Partner to 2012 Olympics in London. Sponsorship of major sports events would help the company to strengthen its profitability and enhance its brand recall among consu mers. Government and other organisations are highly promoting active lifestyle to fight obesity and various diseases. According to the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF), more than 600 million adults were considered obese in 2010. An additional 1.0 billion were estimated to be overweight. This development has serious health consequences and a dramatic effect on health care expenditures. So this issue might bring new opportunity for Adidas. 3. Women Segment Offers Long Term Potential: Till date most of the Adidas revenue comes from the men segment. But in the upcoming days the women segment is showing more potential for Adidas. Adidas should focus on this segment by creating new products and design for womens. 4. Growing global footwear market: According to Data Monitor the global footwear market has shown positive growth in recent years. The global footwear market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 4% in the six-year period 2005-2011 to reach $202.3 billion in 2011. So this is a major opportunity for Adidas to explore itself globally which will result in increase sales and revenues and ultimately gives the group chance to catch the global market. Threats: 1. Macroeconomic Risks: Growth in the sporting goods industry is highly dependent on consumer spending and consumer confidence. Economic downturns, socio-political factors such as civil unrest, nationalisation, in particular in regions where the Group is highly represented, therefore cause a significant short-term risk to sales development. 2. Consumer Demand Risk: Nowadays consumers are more choosy and its quiet difficult to predict their demand. So therefore it is essential to maintain a balance between the supply and demand. Failure to anticipate and respond to changes in consumer demand for sporting goods products is one of the most serious threats for Adidas. 3. Customer Bargaining Power: Nowadays markets are more buyers dominated. The bargaining power of customer is rising rapidly because of intense competition between the suppliers. This issue can harm on Adidas overall business operations. 4. Intense Competition: The athletic footwear, apparel and equipment industry is highly competitive. Adidas group competes with players such as Nike, Callaway Golf Company, New Balance Athletic Shoe, and PUMA AG Rudolf Dazzler Sport. High level of competition in the market place could negatively impact the market share of the group. (Data monitor, 2010). 6. Adidas AG: Strategy Adidas has `diversified its strategy in three dimensions. They are: 1. Group Strategy. 2. Global Brands Strategy. 3. Global Sales Strategy. 1. Group Strategy: 1.1 Creating Shareholder Value: Adidas is trying to create more value for its shareholders through generation of cash flow. Therefore, Adidas AG is focused on carefully managing those factors under its control, making strategic choices that will drive sustainable revenue and earnings growth, and ultimately cash flow. 1.2 Multi Brand Strategies: To maximise customer reach with variety of choice Adidas has adapted multi brand strategy. 1.3 Investments focused on highest potential markets and channels: Adidas has prioritised its investments based on those markets which offer the best medium to long-term growth and profitability opportunities. In this respect, we continue to place a considerable emphasis on expanding our activities in the emerging markets, particularly China and Russia. 2. Global Brand Strategy: 2.1 Driving the long-term development of Adidas and Reebok: To secure long-term sustainable growth for the Group, Global Brands is focused on driving the development of the Adidas and Reebok brands. The overall strategic goal is to achieve qualitative, sustainable growth by building desirable brands in consumers and customers perception. 2.2 Brand architecture and differentiation: Adidas multi-brand structure gives them an important competitive advantage. Through its brand architecture, It seamlessly cover the consumer segments they have defined, catering to more consumer needs, while at the same time keeping clarity of brand message and values. 3. Global Sales Strategy: The global sales function is responsible for the commercial activities of Adidas. The functions is categorised in three distinctive channel retail, wholesale and e-commerce. 3.1 Focus on Controlled Space To make its products more competitive Adidas has adapted several techniques. As a result they are refining their distribution channel with stronger focus on controlled space which includes e-commerce, own retail store, mono branded franchise stores, partnership with retail stores etc. Focusing on Three Attack Markets: As a part of strategic business plan route 2015 the global sales function has identified North America, Russia, UK, Latin America, Greater China, Japan and India as key growth markets. Among them North America, China and Russia are anticipated to contribute over 50% of total sales. To ensure the efficiency of these markets they directly report to the group CEO. 7. Concluding Thoughts Based on the above information this assignment would conclude that Adidas is one of the largest companies in the sporting goods industry. The group operates through more than 150 subsidiaries in Europe, the US and Asia, each focusing on a particular market or part of the manufacturing process. To be concluded Adidas has a priorities SWOT analysis with leading market position as its biggest strength and Geographically-diversified operations enable Adidas to take advantage of a range of market opportunities

Fixed and random effects of panel data analysis

Fixed and random effects of panel data analysis Panel data (also known as longitudinal or cross-sectional time-series data) is a dataset in which the behavior of entities are observed across time. With panel data you can include variables at different levels of analysis (i.e. students, schools, districts, states) suitable for multilevel or hierarchical modeling. In this document we focus on two techniques use to analyze panel data:_DONE_ Fixed effects Random effects FE explore the relationship between predictor and outcome variables within an entity (country, person, company, etc.). Each entity has its own individual characteristics that may or may not influence the predictor variables (for example being a male or female could influence the opinion toward certain issue or the political system of a particular country could have some effect on trade or GDP or the business practices of a company may influence its stock price). When using FE we assume that something within the individual may impact or bias the predictor or outcome variables and we need to control for this. This is the rationale behind the assumption of the correlation between entitys error term and predictor variables. FE remove the effect of those time-invariant characteristics from the predictor variables so we can assess the predictors net effect. _DONE_ Another important assumption of the FE model is that those time-invariant characteristics are unique to the individual and should not be correlated with other individual characteristics. Each entity is different therefore the entitys error term and the constant (which captures individual characteristics) should not be correlated with the others. If the error terms are correlated then FE is no suitable since inferences may not be correct and you need to model that relationship (probably using random-effects), this is the main rationale for the Hausmantest (presented later on in this document). The equation for the fixed effects model becomes: Yit= ÃŽÂ ²1Xit+ ÃŽÂ ±i+ uit[eq.1] Where ÃŽÂ ±i(i=1à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦.n) is the unknown intercept for each entity (nentity-specific intercepts). Yitis the dependent variable (DV) where i= entity and t= time. Xitrepresents one independent variable (IV), ÃŽÂ ²1 is the coefficient for that IV, uitis the error term _DONE_ Random effects assume that the entitys error term is not correlated with the predictors which allows for time-invariant variables to play a role as explanatory variables. In random-effects you need to specify those individual characteristics that may or may not influence the predictor variables. The problem with this is that some variables may not be available therefore leading to omitted variable bias in the model. RE allows to generalize the inferences beyond the sample used in the model. To decide between fixed or random effects you can run a Hausman test where the null hypothesis is that the preferred model is random effects vs. the alternative the fixed effects (see Green, 2008, chapter 9). It basically tests whether the unique errors (ui) are correlated with the regressors, the null hypothesis is they are not. Testing for random effects: Breusch-Pagan Lagrange multiplier (LM)The LM test helps you decide between a random effects regression and a simple OLS regression. The null hypothesis in the LM test is that variances across entities is zero. This is, no significant difference across units (i.e. no panel effect). Here we failed to reject the null and conclude that random effects is not appropriate. This is, no evidence of significant differences across countries, therefore you can run a simple OLS regression. EC968 Panel Data Analysis Steve Pudney ISER University of Essex 2007 Panel data are a form of longitudinal data, involving regularly repeated observations on the same individuals Individuals may be people, households, firms, areas, etc Repeat observations may be different time periods or units within clusters (e.g. workers within firms; siblings within twin pairs)+DONE_ Some terminology A balanced panel has the same number of time observations (T) on each of the n individuals An unbalanced panel has different numbers of time observations (Ti) on each individual A compact panel covers only consecutive time periods for each individual there are no gaps Attrition is the process of drop-out of individuals from the panel, leading to an unbalanced and possibly non-compact panel A short panel has a large number of individuals but few time observations on each, (e.g. BHPS has 5,500 households and 13 waves) A long panel has a long run of time observations on each individual, permitting separate time-series analysis for each_DONE_ Advantages of panel data With panel data: à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ We can study dynamics à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ The sequence of events in time helps to reveal causation à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ We can allow for time-invariant unobservable variables BUTà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ Variation between people usually far exceeds variation over time for an individual à ¢Ã¢â‚¬ ¡Ã¢â‚¬â„¢ a panel with T waves doesnt give T times the information of a cross-section à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ Variation over time may not exist or may be inflated by measurement error à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ Panel data imposes a fixed timing structure; continuoustime survival analysis may be more informative Panel Data Analysis Advantages and Challenges Cheng Hsiao May 2006 IEPR WORKING PAPER 06.49 Panel data or longitudinal data typically refer to data containing time series observations of a number of individuals. Therefore, observations in panel data involve at least two dimensions; a cross-sectional dimension, indicated by subscript i, and a time series dimension, indicated by subscript t. However, panel data could have a more complicated clustering or hierarchical structure. For instance, variable y may be the measurement of the level of air pollution at station _ in city j of country i at time t (e.g. Antweiler (2001), Davis (1999)). For ease of exposition, I shall confine my presentation to a balanced panel involving N cross-sectional units, i = 1, . . .,N, over T time periods, t = 1, . . ., T._DONE_ There are at least three factors contributing to the geometric growth of panel data studies. (i) data availability, (ii) greater capacity for modeling the complexity of human behavior than a single cross-section or time series data, and (iii) challenging methodology. Advantages of Panel Data Panel data, by blending the inter-individual differences and intra-individual dynamics have several advantages over cross-sectional or time-series data: (i) More accurate inference of model parameters. Panel data usually contain more degrees of freedom and more sample variability than cross-sectional data which may be viewed as a panel with T = 1, or time series data which is a panel with N = 1, hence improving the efficiency of econometric estimates (e.g. Hsiao, Mountain and Ho-Illman (1995)._DONE_ (ii) Greater capacity for capturing the complexity of human behavior than a single cross-section or time series data. These include: (ii.a) Constructing and testing more complicated behavioral hypotheses. For instance, consider the example of Ben-Porath (1973) that a cross-sectional sample of married women was found to have an average yearly labor-force participation rate of 50 percent. These could be the outcome of random draws from a homogeneous population or could be draws from heterogeneous populations in which 50% were from the population who always work and 50% never work. If the sample was from the former, each woman would be expected to spend half of her married life in the labor force and half out of the labor force. The job turnover rate would be expected to be frequent and 3 the average job duration would be about two years. If the sample was from the latter, there is no turnover. The current information about a womans work status is a perfect predictor of her future work status. A cross-sectional data is not able to distinguish between these two possibilities, but panel data can because the sequential observations for a number of women contain information about their labor participation in different subintervals of their life cycle. Another example is the evaluation of the effectiveness of social programs (e.g. Heckman, Ichimura, Smith and Toda (1998), Hsiao, Shen, Wang and Wang (2005), Rosenbaum and Rubin (1985). Evaluating the effectiveness of certain programs using cross-sectional sample typically suffers from the fact that those receiving treatment are different from those without. In other words, one does not simultaneously observe what happens to an individual when she receives the treatment or when she does not. An individual is observed as either receiving treatment or not receiving treatment. Using the difference between the treatment group and control group could suffer from two sources of biases, selection bias due to differences in observable factors between the treatment and control groups and selection bias due to endogeneity of participation in treatment. For instance, Northern Territory (NT) in Australia decriminalized possession of small amount of marijuana in 1996. Evaluating the effects of decriminalization on marijuana smoking behavior by comparing the differences between NT and other states that were still non-decriminalized could suffer from either or both sorts of bias. If panel data over this time period are available, it would allow the possibility of observing the before- and affect-effects on individuals of decriminalization as well as providing the possibility of isolating the effects of treatment from other factors affecting the outcome. 4 (ii.b) Controlling the impact of omitted variables. It is frequently argued that the real reason one finds (or does not find) certain effects is due to ignoring the effects of certain variables in ones model specification which are correlated with the included explanatory variables. Panel data contain information on both the intertemporal dynamics and the individuality of the entities may allow one to control the effects of missing or unobserved variables. For instance, MaCurdys (1981) life-cycle labor supply model under certainty implies that because the logarithm of a workers hours worked is a linear function of the logarithm of her wage rate and the logarithm of workers marginal utility of initial wealth, leaving out the logarithm of the workers marginal utility of initial wealth from the regression of hours worked on wage rate because it is unobserved can lead to seriously biased inference on the wage elasticity on hours worked since initial wealth is likely to be correlated with wage rate. However, since a workers marginal utility of initial wealth stays constant over time, if time series observations of an individual are available, one can take the difference of a workers labor supply equation over time to eliminate the effect of marginal utility of initial wealth on hours worked. The rate of change of an individuals hours worked now depends only on the rate of change of her wage rate. It no longer depends on her marginal utility of initial wealth._DONE_ (ii.c) Uncovering dynamic relationships. Economic behavior is inherently dynamic so that most econometrically interesting relationship are explicitly or implicitly dynamic. (Nerlove (2002)). However, the estimation of time-adjustment pattern using time series data often has to rely on arbitrary prior restrictions such as Koyck or Almon distributed lag models because time series observations of current and lagged variables are likely to be highly collinear (e.g. Griliches (1967)). With panel 5 data, we can rely on the inter-individual differences to reduce the collinearity between current and lag variables to estimate unrestricted time-adjustment patterns (e.g. Pakes and Griliches (1984))._DONE_ (ii.d) Generating more accurate predictions for individual outcomes by pooling the data rather than generating predictions of individual outcomes using the data on the individual in question. If individual behaviors are similar conditional on certain variables, panel data provide the possibility of learning an individuals behavior by observing the behavior of others. Thus, it is possible to obtain a more accurate description of an individuals behavior by supplementing observations of the individual in question with data on other individuals (e.g. Hsiao, Appelbe and Dineen (1993), Hsiao, Chan, Mountain and Tsui (1989)). (ii.e) Providing micro foundations for aggregate data analysis. Aggregate data analysis often invokes the representative agent assumption. However, if micro units are heterogeneous, not only can the time series properties of aggregate data be very different from those of disaggregate data (e.g., Granger (1990); Lewbel (1992); Pesaran (2003)), but policy evaluation based on aggregate data may be grossly misleading. Furthermore, the prediction of aggregate outcomes using aggregate data can be less accurate than the prediction based on micro-equations (e.g., Hsiao, Shen and Fujiki (2005)). Panel data containing time series observations for a number of individuals is ideal for investigating the homogeneity versus heterogeneity issue. (iii) Simplifying computation and statistical inference. Panel data involve at least two dimensions, a cross-sectional dimension and a time series dimension. Under normal circumstances one would expect that the 6 computation of panel data estimator or inference would be more complicated than cross-sectional or time series data. However, in certain cases, the availability of panel data actually simplifies computation and inference. For instance: (iii.a) Analysis of nonstationary time series. When time series data are not stationary, the large sample approximation of the distributions of the least-squares or maximum likelihood estimators are no longer normally distributed, (e.g. Anderson (1959), Dickey and Fuller (1979,81), Phillips and Durlauf (1986)). But if panel data are available, and observations among cross-sectional units are independent, then one can invoke the central limit theorem across cross-sectional units to show that the limiting distributions of many estimators remain asymptotically normal (e.g. Binder, Hsiao and Pesaran (2005), Levin, Lin and Chu (2002), Im, Pesaran and Shin (2004), Phillips and Moon (1999)). (iii.b) Measurement errors. Measurement errors can lead to under-identification of an econometric model (e.g. Aigner, Hsiao, Kapteyn and Wansbeek (1985)). The availability of multiple observations for a given individual or at a given time may allow a researcher to make different transformations to induce different and deducible changes in the estimators, hence to identify an otherwise unidentified model (e.g. Biorn (1992), Griliches and Hausman (1986), Wansbeek and Koning (1989)). (iii.c) Dynamic Tobit models. When a variable is truncated or censored, the actual realized value is unobserved. If an outcome variable depends on previous realized value and the previous realized value are unobserved, one has to take integration over the truncated range to obtain the likelihood of observables. In a dynamic framework with multiple missing values, the multiple 7 integration is computationally unfeasible. With panel data, the problem can be simplified by only focusing on the subsample in which previous realized values are observed (e.g. Arellano, Bover, and Labeager (1999)). The advantages of random effects (RE) specification are: (a) The number of parameters stay constant when sample size increases. (b) It allows the derivation of efficient 10 estimators that make use of both within and between (group) variation. (c) It allows the estimation of the impact of time-invariant variables. The disadvantage is that one has to specify a conditional density of ÃŽÂ ±i given x Ëœ _ i = (x Ëœ it, . . ., x ËœiT ), f(ÃŽÂ ±i | x Ëœ i), while ÃŽÂ ±i are unobservable. A common assumption is that f(ÃŽÂ ±i | x Ëœi) is identical to the marginal density f(ÃŽÂ ±i). However, if the effects are correlated with x Ëœit or if there is a fundamental difference among individual units, i.e., conditional on x Ëœit, yit cannot be viewed as a random draw from a common distribution, common RE model is misspecified and the resulting estimator is biased. The advantages of fixed effects (FE) specification are that it can allow the individualand/ or time specific effects to be correlated with explanatory variables x Ëœ it. Neither does it require an investigator to model their correlation patterns. The disadvantages of the FE specification are: (a) The number of unknown parameters increases with the number of sample observations. In the case when T (or N for ÃŽÂ »t) is finite, it introduces the classical incidental parameter problem (e.g. Neyman and Scott (1948)). (b) The FE estimator does not allow the estimation of the coefficients that are time-invariant. In order words, the advantages of RE specification are the disadvantages of FE specification and the disadvantages of RE specification are the advantages of FE specification. To choose between the two specifications, Hausman (1978) notes that if the FE estimator (or GMM), ˆ ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¸_DONE_ ËœFE, is consistent whether ÃŽÂ ±i is fixed or random and the commonly used RE estimator (or GLS), ˆ ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¸ ËœRE, is consistent and efficient only when ÃŽÂ ±i is indeed uncorrelated with x Ëœit and is inconsistent if ÃŽÂ ±i is correlated with x Ëœit. The advantage of RE specification is that there is no incidental parameter problem. The problem is that f(ÃŽÂ ±i | x Ëœ i) is in general unknown. If a wrong f(ÃŽÂ ±i | x Ëœi) is postulated, maximizing the wrong likelihood function will not yield consistent estimator of ÃŽÂ ² Ëœ . Moreover, the derivation of the marginal likelihood through multiple integration may be computationally infeasible. The advantage of FE specification is that there is no need to specify f(ÃŽÂ ±i | x Ëœ i). The likelihood function will be the product of individual likelihood (e.g. (4.28)) if the errors are i.i.d. The disadvantage is that it introduces incidental parameters. Longitudinal (Panel and Time Series Cross-Section) Data Nathaniel Beck Department of Politics NYU New York, NY 10012 [emailprotected] http://www.nyu.edu/gsas/dept/politics/faculty/beck/beck home.html Jan. 2004 What is longitudinal data? Observed over time as well as over space. Pure cross-section data has many limitations (Kramer, 1983). Problem is that only have one historical context. (Single) time series allows for multiple historical context, but for only one spatial location. Longitudinal data repeated observations on units observed over time Subset of hierarchical data observations that are correlated because there is some tie to same unit. E.g. in educational studies, where we observe student i in school u. Presumably there is some tie between the observations in the same school. In such data, observe yj,u where u indicates a unit and j indicates the jth observation drawn from that unit. Thus no relationship between yj,u and yj,u0 even though they have the same first subscript. In true longitudinal data, t represents comparable time. Generalized Least Squares An alternative is GLS. If is known (up to a scale factor), GLS is fully efficient and yields consistent estimates of the standard errors. The GLS estimates of _ are given by (X0à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1X) à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1X0à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1Y (14) with estimated covariance matrix (X0à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1X) à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 . (15) (Usually we simplify by finding some trick to just do a simple transform on the observations to make the resulting variance-covariance matrix of the errors satisfy the Gauss-Markov assumptions. Thus, the common Cochrane-Orcutt transformation to eliminate serial correlation of the errors is almost GLS, as is weighted regression to eliminate heteroskedasticity.) The problem is that is never known in practice (even up to a scale factor). Thus an estimate of , ˆ , is used in Equations 14 and 15. This procedure, FGLS, provides consistent estimates of _ if ˆ  is estimated by residuals computed from consistent estimates of _; OLS provides such consistent estimates. We denote the FGLS estimates of _ by Ëœ_. In finite samples FGLS underestimates sampling variability (for normal errors). The basic insight used by Freedman and Peters is that X0à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1X is a (weakly) concave function of . FGLS uses an estimate of , ˆ , in place of the true . As a consequence, the expectation of the FGLS variance, over possible realizations of ˆ , will be less than the variance, computed with the . This holds even if ˆ  is a consistent estimator of . The greater the variance of ˆ , the greater the downward bias. This problem is not severe if there are only a small number of parameters in the variance-covariance matrix to be estimated (as in Cochrane-Orcutt) but is severe if there are a lot of parameters relative to the amount of data. Beck TSCS Winter 2004 Class 1 8 ASIDE: Maximum likelihood would get this right, since we would estimate all parameters and take those into account. But with a large number of parameters in the error process, we would just see that ML is impossible. That would have been good. PANEL DATA ANALYSIS USING SAS ABU HASSAN SHAARI MOHD NOR Faculty of Economics and Business Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia [emailprotected] FAUZIAH MAAROF Faculty of Science Universiti Putra Malaysia [emailprotected] 2007 Advantages of panel data According to Baltagi (2001) there are several advantages of using panel data as compared to running the models using separate time series and cross section data. They are as follows: Large number of data points 2)Increase degrees of freedom reduce collinearity 3) Improve efficiency of estimates and 4) Broaden the scope of inference The Econometrics of Panel Data Michel Mouchart 1 Institut de statistique Università © catholique de Louvain (B) 3rd March 2004 1 text book Statistical modelling : benefits and limita- tions of panel data 1.5.1 Some characteristic features of P.D. Object of this subsection : features to bear in mind when modelling P.D. à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ Size : often N (] of individual(s)) is large Ti (size of individual time series) is small thus:N >> Ti BUT this is not always the case ] of variables is large (often: multi-purpose survey) à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ Sampling : often individuals are selected randomly Time is not rotating panels split panels _ : individuals are partly renewed at each period à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ non independent data among data relative to a same individual: because of unobservable characteristics of each individual among individuals : because of unobservable characteristics common to several individuals between time periods : because of dynamic behaviour CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 10 1.5.2 Some benefits from using P.D. a) Controlling for individual heterogeneity Example : state cigarette demand (Baltagi and Levin 1992) à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ Unit : 46 american states à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ Time period : 1963-1988 à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ endogenous variable : cigarette demand à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ explanatory variables : lagged endogenous, price, income à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ consider other explanatory variables : Zi : time invariant religion ( ± stable over time) education etc. Wt state invariant TV and radio advertising (national campaign) Problem : many of these variables are not available This is HETEROGENEITY (also known as frailty) (remember !) omitted variable ) bias (unless very specific hypotheses) Solutions with P.D. à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ dummies (specific to i and/or to t) WITHOUT killing the data à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ differences w.r.t. to i-averages i.e. : yit 7! (yit à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢  ¯yi.)_DONE_ CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 11 b) more information data sets à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ larger sample size due to pooling _ individual time dimension In the balanced case: NT observations In the unbalanced case: P1_i_N Ti observations à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ more variability ! less collinearity (as is often the case in time series) often : variation between units is much larger than variation within units_DONE_ c) better to study the dynamics of adjustment à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ distinguish repeated cross-sections : different individuals in different periods panel data : SAME individuals in different periods à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ cross-section : photograph at one period repeated cross-sections : different photographs at different periods only panel data to model HOW individuals ajust over time . This is crucial for: policy evaluation life-cycle models intergenerational models_DONE_ CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 12 d) Identification of parameters that would not be identified with pure cross-sections or pure time-series: example 1 : does union membership increase wage ? P.D. allows to model BOTH union membership and individual characteristics for the individuals who enter the union during the sample period. example 2 : identifying the turn-over in the female participation to the labour market. Notice: the female, or any other segment ! i.e. P.D. allows for more sophisticated behavioural models e) à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ estimation of aggregation bias à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ often : more precise measurements at the micro level Comparing the Fixed Effect and the Ran- dom Effect Models 2.4.1 Comparing the hypotheses of the two Models The RE model and the FE model may be viewed within a hierarchical specification of a unique encompassing model. From this point of view, the two models are not fundamentally different, they rather correspond to different levels of analysis within a unique hierarchical framework. More specifically, from a Bayesian point of view, where all the variables (latent or manifest) and parameters are jointly endowed with a (unique) probability measure, one CHAPTER 2. ONE-WAY COMPONENT REGRESSION MODEL 37 may consider the complete specification of the law of (y, ÃŽÂ ¼, _ | Z, ZÃŽÂ ¼) as follows: (y | ÃŽÂ ¼, _, Z, ZÃŽÂ ¼) _ N( Z_ _ + ZÃŽÂ ¼ÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¼, _2 I(NT)) (2.64) (ÃŽÂ ¼ | _, Z, ZÃŽÂ ¼) _ N(0, _2 ÃŽÂ ¼ I(N)) (2.65) (_ | Z, ZÃŽÂ ¼) _ Q (2.66) where Q is an arbitrary prior probability on _ = (_, _2 , _2 ÃŽÂ ¼). Parenthetically, note that this complete specification assumes: y _2 ÃŽÂ ¼ | ÃŽÂ ¼, _, _2 , Z, ZÃŽÂ ¼ ÃŽÂ ¼(_, Z, ZÃŽÂ ¼) | _2 ÃŽÂ ¼ The above specification implies: (y | _, Z, ZÃŽÂ ¼) _ N( Z_ _ , _2 ÃŽÂ ¼ ZÃŽÂ ¼ Z0ÃŽÂ ¼ + _2 I(NT)) (2.67) Thus the FE model, i.e. (2.64), considers the distribution of (y | ÃŽÂ ¼, _, Z, ZÃŽÂ ¼) as the sampling distribution and the distributions of (ÃŽÂ ¼ | _, Z, ZÃŽÂ ¼) and (_ | Z, ZÃŽÂ ¼) as prior specification. The RE model, i.e. (2.67), considers the distribution of (y | _, Z, ZÃŽÂ ¼) as the sampling distribution and the distribution of (_ | Z, ZÃŽÂ ¼) as prior specification. Said differently, in the RE model, ÃŽÂ ¼ is treated as a latent (i.e. not obervable) variable whereas in the FE model ÃŽÂ ¼ is treated as an incidental parameter. Moreover, the RE model is obtained from the FE model through a marginalization with respect to ÃŽÂ ¼. These remarks make clear that the FE model and the RE model should be expected to display different sampling properties. Also, the inference on ÃŽÂ ¼ is an estimation problem in the FE model whereas it is a prediction problem in the RE model: the difference between these two problems regards the difference in the relevant sampling properties, i.e. w.r.t. the distribution of (y | ÃŽÂ ¼, _, Z, ZÃŽÂ ¼) or of (y | _, Z, ZÃŽÂ ¼), and eventually of the relevant risk functions, i.e. the sampling expectation of a loss due to an error between an estimated value and a (fixed) parameter or between a predicted value and the realization of a (latent) random variable. This fact does however not imply that both levels might be used indifferently. Indeed, from a sampling point of view: (i) the dimensions of the parameter spaces are drastically different. In the FE model, when N , the number of individuals, increases, the ÃŽÂ ¼i s being CHAPTER 2. ONE-WAY COMPONENT REGRESSION MODEL 38 incidental parameters also increases in number: each new individual introduces a new parameter.

Of Revenge: Francis Bacon’s Optimistic Tale? Essay -- Of Revenge Essay

Of Revenge: Francis Bacon’s Optimistic Tale? Revenge and vengeance are basic tools of human instinct. Whether society chooses to accept or blind itself to this fact, it is an indisputable truth. Francis Bacon examines this truth in "Of Revenge", a view of society and literary characters that reflects the strive for vengeance. However, "Of Revenge" deeply underestimates the corruption of the human spirit and soul. It completely disregards the presence of the basic human instinct which thrives on the manipulation and destruction of others, for the sake of satisfaction. Though Bacon’s inferences to the book of Job or Solomon are perfectly viable to a character that chooses to take revenge after they have been wronged, to believe that "no man does evil just for the sake of evil" annihilates any complete sense of credibility that Bacon’s thoughts imply. The author’s aspirations of the seeking of revenge solely as a means of retribution for oneself, and not to satisfy the evil within the human soul, is a beautifu l and idealistic hope which belongs in some earthen utopia. Unfortunately, it has no bearing on the modern world. Though the beliefs of Bacon expressed in "On Revenge" fulfill the traits of characters such as Medea, they neglect the human thrive for meaningless vengeance in characters such as Shakespeare’s Iago. Euripides’s Medea uses the theme of the search for revenge in order to instigate the downfalls and deaths of many characters. This theme is expressed through the character of Medea, who fits directly into the mold laid out in the guidelines of "Of Revenge". Medea’s search for revenge commences after her husband, the famous Greek hero Jason, leaves her for... ...nge" Francis Bacon considers the good and evil sides of man, and thus draws conclusions given the relationship between the good and evil in a character is equal. Therefore, a character such as Medea, who possessed many virtuous qualities, as well as detestable ones, fits the mold of Bacon’s beliefs of the justification of revenge. However, Bacon disregards the fact that in some men, their is more evil than their is good, and the strength and tenacity of that man override moral views. It is this imbalance that leads characters like Iago to do "evil for the sake of evil" and though they are not justified in their search for revenge, they endlessly endeavor to disrupt the natural flow of good to satisfy their evil cravings. Bacon discounts this amoral view of the human race which irrevocably overshadows the conclusions he draws as to the justification of human vengeance.

Essay on the Metamorphosis of Fitzwilliam Darcy in Pride and Prejudice

The Metamorphosis of Fitzwilliam Darcy in Pride and Prejudice    Introduced to Jane Austen's Pride and Prejudice as a good-looking, self-absorbed aristocrat, Fitzwilliam Darcy experiences a change in his personality and character.   Falling in love was what Darcy needed in order to dispose of his existent views on marriage and money.   Although Mr. Darcy was well mannered, he did not know how to treat women with respect, especially those of a lower social status than he.   However, the love of Elizabeth Bennet changed his behavior forever.    Darcy's arrogance shines through at the beginning of the novel in his first appearance at the Meryton ball.   Speaking of Elizabeth Bennet, he so snobbishly set forth that she was, "...tolerable, but not handsome enough to tempt me" (230).   His feelings of superiority to the people of the town lend Mr. Darcy to be judged as a man with a repulsive and atrocious personality.   The women, who had found him dashingly handsome at first appearance, deemed him a man unworthy of marriage because he offered no positive qualities other than wealth and physical attractiveness.   Not only did Darcy refuse a dance with Elizabeth, but he made it apparent that no woman in the room met his standards of a suitable woman stating that, "...there is not another woman in this room, whom it would not be a punishment to me to stand up with" (229).   Mr. Darcy is concerned only with the wealth and social standing of the people in the beginning of the novel and will not even communicate with the p eople of the town as they are lower than him and undeserving of his presence.   However, as the novel continues on, Darcy becomes more and more accepting of the Bennet family, which he had formerly thought of as nothing ... ...ce.   Ed. Donald Gray.   New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1996. Hennelly, Jr., Mark M. "Pride and Prejudice." Jane Austen: New Perspectives. ed. Janet Todd. New York: Holmes & Meier Publishers, Inc., 1983. Jane Austen Info Page. Henry Churchyard. U of Texas, Austin. 23 Nov. 2000.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   <http://www.pemberly.com/janeinfo/janeinfo/html>. Monaghan, David.   Jane Austen Structure and Social Vision.   New York: Barnes & Noble Books, 1980. Poplawski, Paul.   A Jane Austen Encyclopedia.   Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood Press, 1998. Reidhead, Julia, ed. Norton Anthology of English Literature vol. 7, 2nd ed. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2000. Ward, David Allen. "Pride and Prejudice." Explicator. 51.1: (1992). Wright, Andrew H. "Feeling and Complexity in Pride and Prejudice." Ed. Donald Gray. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1966. 410-420. Essay on the Metamorphosis of Fitzwilliam Darcy in Pride and Prejudice The Metamorphosis of Fitzwilliam Darcy in Pride and Prejudice    Introduced to Jane Austen's Pride and Prejudice as a good-looking, self-absorbed aristocrat, Fitzwilliam Darcy experiences a change in his personality and character.   Falling in love was what Darcy needed in order to dispose of his existent views on marriage and money.   Although Mr. Darcy was well mannered, he did not know how to treat women with respect, especially those of a lower social status than he.   However, the love of Elizabeth Bennet changed his behavior forever.    Darcy's arrogance shines through at the beginning of the novel in his first appearance at the Meryton ball.   Speaking of Elizabeth Bennet, he so snobbishly set forth that she was, "...tolerable, but not handsome enough to tempt me" (230).   His feelings of superiority to the people of the town lend Mr. Darcy to be judged as a man with a repulsive and atrocious personality.   The women, who had found him dashingly handsome at first appearance, deemed him a man unworthy of marriage because he offered no positive qualities other than wealth and physical attractiveness.   Not only did Darcy refuse a dance with Elizabeth, but he made it apparent that no woman in the room met his standards of a suitable woman stating that, "...there is not another woman in this room, whom it would not be a punishment to me to stand up with" (229).   Mr. Darcy is concerned only with the wealth and social standing of the people in the beginning of the novel and will not even communicate with the p eople of the town as they are lower than him and undeserving of his presence.   However, as the novel continues on, Darcy becomes more and more accepting of the Bennet family, which he had formerly thought of as nothing ... ...ce.   Ed. Donald Gray.   New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1996. Hennelly, Jr., Mark M. "Pride and Prejudice." Jane Austen: New Perspectives. ed. Janet Todd. New York: Holmes & Meier Publishers, Inc., 1983. Jane Austen Info Page. Henry Churchyard. U of Texas, Austin. 23 Nov. 2000.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   <http://www.pemberly.com/janeinfo/janeinfo/html>. Monaghan, David.   Jane Austen Structure and Social Vision.   New York: Barnes & Noble Books, 1980. Poplawski, Paul.   A Jane Austen Encyclopedia.   Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood Press, 1998. Reidhead, Julia, ed. Norton Anthology of English Literature vol. 7, 2nd ed. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2000. Ward, David Allen. "Pride and Prejudice." Explicator. 51.1: (1992). Wright, Andrew H. "Feeling and Complexity in Pride and Prejudice." Ed. Donald Gray. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1966. 410-420.

Person Centred Risk Essay

Traditional methods of risk assessment are full of charts and scoring systems, but the person, their objectives, dreams and life seem to get lost somewhere in the pages of tick boxes and statistics. A person centred approach seeks to focus on people’s rights to have the lifestyle that they chose, including the right to make ‘bad’ decisions. see more:explain how to encourage the individual to take positive risks while maintaining safety The approach described here uses person centred thinking tools, to help people and those who care about them most think in a positive and productive way about how to ensure that they can achieve the changes they want to see while keeping the issue of risk in its place. This in essence is a process to gather, in partnership with the person, the fullest information and evidence to demonstrate that we have thought deeply about all the issues involved. Decisions are then guided by what is important to the person, what is needed to keep them healthy and safe and on what the law says. Papers and Articles Supported Decision Making A key part of risk is decision making. We have co-written a booklet on Supported Decision Making. To view this booklet see the downloads box on the left. A Positive Approach to Risk Requires Person Centred Thinking Max Neill, Julie Allen, Neil Woodhead, Stephen Reid, Lori Irwin and Helen Sanderson 2008 This article looks at the issue of risk in the lives of people who are supported by human services. More accurately, it looks at how the issue of risk, as it has traditionally been approached by these services, imposes a barrier to social inclusion and to an interesting and productive life. The article also proposes an alternative person centred risk process that by beginning with a focus on who the person is, their gifts and skills, and offering a positive vision of success, could avoid the implied aversion to any form of risk embedded in the traditional approaches and attitudes. The full exposition of this process is described in the ‘Person Centred Risk Course Book’ (Allen et al 2008). The problems of traditional risk assessment are becoming increasingly recognised by people who use human services, their families and carers, and now by many service providers, who are looking for alternative approaches to risk: ‘thorough, professional, personalised risk management’ (Bates and Silberman 2007 p6) that recognise that life and risk are inseparable, and that look at risk from the point of view of the person, their family and friends and the wider community, rather than solely from the point of view of the service provider. Bates and Silberman argue that any such positive approach to risk would need to meet a number of requirements, and see it as the ‘holy grail’ of mental health and other services. The authors of this article have been working on applying Person Centred Thinking Tools to the issue of risk, building them in to a ‘Person Centred Approach to Risk’. We believe this alternative approach does not lose the person in a sea of tick boxes and charts, that it has a more balanced approach to risk, having an inbuilt assumption that the purpose of any risk assessment is just as much about the happiness of the person, their family and the community as it is about their safety. We also believe that the ‘Person Centred Approach to Risk’ can be demonstrated to meet all the requirements set by Bates and Silberman in their article, and that it provides a productive way for many people who wish to take meaningful steps forward in their lives, but find themselves trapped in a boring unproductive and segregated lifestyles by traditional service-centred approaches to risk. Finally we argue that any positive approach to risk must include the basic tenets of all Person Centred Approaches; keeping the person at the centre, treating family and friends as partners, a focus on what is important to the person, an intent to build connections with the community, being prepared to go beyond conventional service options, and continuing to listen and learn with the person. What is ‘Risk’? The experience of many people who have to rely on human services for their support is that ‘risk’ is the reason given to them by services why they cannot do the things that other people are doing every day. When we delve into the word ‘risk’, we find that it has a multitude of meanings, and that it is nowhere near as clear and precise as the advocates of traditional risk assessment assert, for example Hansson (2002) identifies five different common uses for the word risk, and Ekberg points out a â€Å"proliferation of risk definitions† and a whole range of different understandings of risk (2007 p345). Risk literature often separates ‘risk’ from ‘uncertainty’, defining the risk as a measurable probability that something will happen, however, even where experts claim they can give an exact probability value to a risk, there is always a possibility that the experts may be wrong (Hansson 2002 p4). In common usage the words ‘risk’ and ‘uncertainty’ are often synonymous (Lupton 1999 p9) Risk is sometimes used as a verb: a person ‘risks’ doing something, and sometimes a noun: a person is labelled as being a ‘risk to society’. The drive for a single definition of ‘Risk’ has been described as â€Å"a futile form of linguistic imperialism† (Hansson 2000 p3), he argues that risk in it’s popular usage is just as valid as the narrow technical values attached to the term, as this allows the inclusion of philosophical and ethical values, the bargaining and compromises that are excluded from â€Å"the expert-driven risk analysis process† but are essential for social and political decision making processes (ibid pp5-8). Risk decision making is often complicated by the fact that the person or group taking the decision is not always the person or group affected by the risk. Hansson argues that â€Å"risks are inextricably connected with interpersonal relationships. They do not just ‘exist’; they are taken, run or imposed† (2000 p4). Differences in power and status affect the extent to which people influence risk decision making – the views of developers wishing to build a dam across a river may well be given more weight than those of people living nearby that river. Where a person with less power and status might wish to take a risk, and the consequences of that risk would affect more powerful people, it is more likely that they will be prevented from taking it. This is the problem faced by people supported by services and professionals, where those services and professionals fear various real and imagined consequences to them of the risk taking of the people they support. www.helensandersonassociates.co.uk This problem is deepened in modern society as the power of the news media can mean that the unpredictable actions of an individual can now have an amplified impact on the reputation of services, and on political and corporate institutions. Services that are now becoming increasingly concerned with ‘reputational risk management’ find that this demands â€Å"The risk management of everything† (Power 2004 p36). In the case of human services, this means an ever more intrusive and obsessive focus on every aspect of the lives, behaviours and potential behaviours of the people they support. It can also mean the increasing ‘proceduralisation’ of work, as defensive practice and blame avoidance (ibid p46) become more important than the particular lives of individual people. Risk can become a highly charged and politically loaded issue. The parties involved can have very different interests at stake in debates about particular risks, and these can often be prone to become full on conflicts, leading to different parties taking entrenched positions that prevent cooperation, agreement and action and further trap the person. Person Centred Approaches, with their focus on the person and strategy of building an alliance of supporters around the person can often cut across this entrenchment and generate new and creative ways forward, providing that services are prepared to face this challenge. This is now being recognised by government departments, the Department of Health publication ‘Independence Choice and Risk’ wholeheartedly commends person centred approaches for everyone because they â€Å"identify what is important to a person from his or her own perspective and find appropriate solutions† (DOH 2007 p4) Regulators too want to see the balance of risk decision making shifting toward â€Å"supporting individuals who choose to take informed risks in order to improve the quality of their lives†( CSCI 2006 pvii) in this case CSCI are talking about older people, but this shift in attitude to risk is being advocated for all services that offer health or social care to human beings. For the purposes of this article, we are considering ‘risk’ as it presents to people that use services – any issue, real or imagined, which is being used as an objection to their moving toward increased inclusion in community life. What is Wrong with Traditional Risk Assessment? A focus on risk â€Å"encourages practitioners to look for what is going wrong rather than what is going right† (Booth and Booth 1998 p205) Traditional technocratic and spuriously ‘objective’ approaches to risk ‘lose the person’ – philosophically they treat the person as an object to be assessed by the ‘experts’ rather than as an agent in their own lives, part of a family, community, society, with legal rights and choices. They focus on what is wrong with the person, often treating the person as a problem to be managed rather than a person to be enabled to fulfil their ambitions and offer a contribution to society. Alaszewski and Alaszewski (2002) argue that â€Å"If agencies and their employees take a narrow hazard approach to risk, they will contribute to the disempowerment of people with learning disabilities† Power (2004) calls for ‘intelligent’ risk management that does not â€Å"swamp managerial attention and independent critical imagination† is characterised by â€Å"learning and experiment rather than rule based processes† and which can be sustained subject to challenge, questioning and criticism (p61), while the Better Regulation Commission has called for an emphasis in risk management on â€Å"resilience, self reliance, freedom, innovation and a spirit of adventure† (BRC 2006 p3). The government too is calling for â€Å"A culture of choice that entails responsible, supported decision making† (Lewis 2007 p1) and calls for everyone involved in the lives of people who use services to â€Å"work together to help people achieve their potential without compromising their safety† (ibid p2). To give proper balanced consideration to issues of risk and achievement in the diverse and complex lives of human beings, we need an entirely different approach from the methods that services use to ‘risk assess’ their hoists, fridges and kettles. Bates and Silberman’s ‘Holy Grail’ Criteria. Bates and Silberman have described effective risk management as the â€Å"‘holy grail’ of mental health and other care services† (2007 p6) They see it as finding an integrated balance between â€Å"positive risk taking† around the values of autonomy and independence and a policy of protection for the person and the community based on minimising harm. While they do not give an exact description of what such an approach would look like, they give a list of 7 criteria that any such approach would have to fulfil, these being: Involvement of Service Users and Relatives in Risk Assessment. Positive and Informed Risk Taking. Proportionality. Contextualising Behaviour. Defensible Decision Making. A Learning Culture. Tolerable Risks. A Person Centred Approach To Risk There are many different tools and approaches available to support Person Centred Thinking, many of which have come from ‘deconstructing’ the processes of Smull and Sanderson’s (2005) ‘Essential Lifestyle Planning’ approach, while some have come from other strands in the growing family of Person Centred Approaches and by early work applying person centred approaches to risk by Duffy and Kinsella (Kinsella 2000). Practitioners of Person Centred Approaches who were unsatisfied with the traditional repertoire of Risk Management tools have begun to recombine these Person Centred Tools in innovative and creative ways, and to apply them to thinking, acting and learning around real risk situations. The learning from this experience, reflection and discussion has been refined and crystallised into a process that can be shared and applied constructively to different risk situations, bringing together people who use services and the people who know and care about them most to think about how they wish to move forward and the risks involved; making decisions, taking actions and learning together. We have called this process a ‘Person Centred Approach to Risk’ (Allen et al 2008). In this section we will look at the ‘holy grail’ criteria put forward by Bates and Silberman and show how we believe the Person Centred Approach to Risk fulfils these criteria. â€Å"Involvement of service users and relatives in risk assessment†: Involving the person concerned and the people that care about them most is one of the most fundamental tenets of any person centred approach. The process we have put together considers carefully the people that need to be involved, using the ‘Relationship Circle’ to help the person and their allies identify key people who could form the persons ‘circle of support’. This group of people is involved from the outset, in the initial gathering of information, in the framing of what the risk under discussion actually is, in thinking that generates ideas and solutions, in evaluating these solutions, in decision making around the risk, in implementing the actions and in the learning that takes place during these actions. Bates and Silberman suggest that â€Å"staff must understand what service users and others want, how they view their own risks and what responsibilities each person has in managing risks effectively† (2007 p7). The Person Centred Approach meets this by asking for a clear picture of what the person wishes to achieve, why this is important to the person, what success would look like, a history of the risk and uses the ‘doughnut’ tool and decision making agreement tools to look at staff roles and responsibilities, and at who will be responsible for different important decisions in relation to the risk. â€Å"Positive and informed risk taking†: The process is built around a positive view of the person – it seeks to learn what the person’s gifts and skills are, what people like and admire about them, as well as investigating what would be necessary to keep them and others safe while taking the risk. The process is based on finding creative solutions rather than simply ruling things out. Bates and Silberman argue here that quality of life should be â€Å"maximised while people and communities are kept as safe as can be reasonably expected within a free society† (2007 p7). Thinking around what it would take to keep the person and others safe while taking the risk is a key part of the Positive and Productive Process, as is the use of the ‘Happy/Safe’ grid, which looks at how much solutions would make the person happy, by meeting what is important to them, and how much they would keep them and others safe, by meeting what is important for them. One section of the process includes a question â€Å"What does the law say?† (Allen et al 2008 p20) enabling the process to be informed by the current law, including legislation such as the Human Rights Act. â€Å"Proportionality†: â€Å"The management of the risk must match the gravity of potential harm† (ibid p8) Using the person centred thinking tools means flexibility. The more serious the issue, the more people and the more time can be spent considering it in greater detail. Unlike conventional risk assessment, the approach explores the consequences of NOT taking the risk, to the person, to their family, community and services, balancing these against the potential consequences of taking the risk. â€Å"Contextualising Behaviour†: â€Å"why did the person behave in this way? At this time? In this Situation?†(ibid p8) Part of the process involves gathering together previous information about the person, including a history of the person’s experience of the risk issue from their own perspective, as well as other historical data, gleaned from a variety of sources including learning logs which look at what has worked and what has not worked in particular situations, and communication charts which explore a person’s words and behaviours, seeking their meanings and considering what the best response to these messages should be. The ‘4+1 Questions’ (What have we tried? what have we learned? What are we pleased about? what are we concerned about?) help not only to gain an understanding of a person’s behaviour in different contexts, but also to build a picture of what has been learned about what is the best support for that person. â€Å"Defensible Decision Making†: â€Å"there is an explicit and justifiable rationale for the risk management decisions† (Ibid p8): Following the person centred approach generates a clear trail of written records of what has been discussed, the different perspectives, issues and solutions that have been considered, along with any legal issues, such as the human rights act or the mental health act that might affect the risk decision. The paperwork generated during the process provides a clear rationale for why the decisions that emerge during the process have been taken, and why other options have been rejected. The rationale for decision making is also more clearly expounded and recorded than in traditional risk assessment forms in common usage. â€Å"A Learning Culture† The positive and productive approach to risk has a deep emphasis within it on ongoing learning using learning and reflective tools like the learning log, the 4+1 Questions and What’s Working/What’s not working, and by clearly defining for staff their core duties and their zone of judgement and creativity in relation to the risk. If it is part of a serious and concerted attempt by services to change their philosophy and practice in a person centred direction, it can contribute significantly to building a learning culture within organisations. â€Å"Tolerable Risks† A key aspect of the Person Centred Approach is that it uses creative thinking techniques around methods to mitigate the risk and improve quality of life, moving from situations which make the person happy but unsafe, to where they and the community are safer, and from strategies where the person is ‘safe but unhappy’, to where they can be happier. Experience of using the process is that it enables participants to take a more balanced and rational approach to risk, finding ways to enable the person to achieve what is important to them while considering what keeps that person and the community safe in a way that makes sense for that individual.

Education, Teaching and Curriculum Essay

Education has always been an important aspect in the course of personal and societal development as a whole. Every individual has an urge and personal willingness to learn valuable information that varies from either practical knowledge o scientific ones. However, all of these relevant informations are very much needed by every individual to be able to develop their own self and become self-sufficient and productive members of the society. Education has many methodologies from which one individual can attain it in a scientifically formulated pattern. This is actually the main pattern accepted and utilized by all educational institution in their formal learning process and even implemented by those who implement informal ones. Gradual and progressive pattern is the most effective and easiest way used in learning process because it mainly accommodates normal brain development and innate learning abilities of the person. In this learning process, the main methodology commonly used in the per curriculum basis encompassing teaching instructions for learning individuals. Curriculum is literally defined in education as a set of courses regarding different classes or subjects offered in different educational institutions such as a school or a university. Embedded in its process are different specific classes for minor and major aspects that are all conjoined in adherence to the course objective of the entire curriculum. This is actually formulated and expressed in terms of its learning outcomes and for the development of the students taking up the said curriculum. Curriculums in general, whatever its subject or class is, are all created to envelope the learning process of individuals learning their specific course to develop and acquire valuable and relevant skills in that specific field. The main learning approach commonly used in the curriculum teaching is based on a set of instruction, which are all directed to guide the students in the gradually process of learning in the curriculum. Instructions are a basic aspect of the learning process. They are all formulated to guide students in their gradual learning process in their respective fields. In educational curriculum, instructions serve as a form of communicated information that has a command and explanation nature. Thus, instructions are descriptive explanations for how an action, behavior, method, or task is to be begun, completed, conducted, or executed. Because of their significant relevance to the learning process of individuals, instructions are explicitly used in the approach system and learning process in a curriculum. Learning instructions are generally formulated and given to students to guide them in discovering and thus learning the different specific informations and processes that are significant in the execution and completion of their respective subjects that are enveloped in their curriculum. With consideration of the definition and significant or the two main aspects in the learning process, curriculum and instruction have a direct relationship with each other. In the education aspect, curriculums are generally composed of specific set of instructions in specific subjects based on its respective course. Instruction are formulated and applied by the educational institutions to guide and educate explain to their students the knowledge and information in the different subjects encompassed in the gradual learning process of their different curriculums in every courses or fields. Thus, curriculum and instructions go side-by-side in systematically developing and directing the educational system to better address the normal mental development and innate learning process of the students thus encouraging more productive and efficient learning approach for the society. In terms of the higher level of educational set up, the curriculums offered as well as the regulations are diversely changed to apply to the demands required for the learners. Obviously, the requirements of concentration and focus from the students are heightened. However, this does not add the directly instructional as compared to that of the lower levels of learning. Obviously, this is primarily because of the fact that the students in this level are already matured enough to be still instructed on what they are supposed to do. The students are rather expected to place higher concentration and intend to pursue in a better level of focus on the proper learning attitude needed for them to survive this particular stage of learning. The instance of being able to survive the scholastic challenges presented by the higher and more demanding environment of education is a primary achievement among those who are concentrating to attain the best out of their learning in this level of educational state. Most of the time, the students are known to be pressured in this set up, but all these procedures are strongly applied to actually help in the process of making the students see the real implications of their lessons in actual life.